The price of durians has recently decreased, and while this phenomenon has attracted short-term consumer attention, the price fluctuation is actually a periodic adjustment and does not truly reflect the overall durian market.

In Nanning, Guangxi, a consumer looking for the rumored "cabbage price" durians was unsuccessful. Despite claims of "durians falling below 10 yuan per jin" and "5 durians for 100 yuan" extreme low prices, the reality is much more complex. A local consumer found, after on-site visits and comparisons, that the price of durians (mainly the Thai Golden Pillow variety) in Nanning is generally around 20 yuan per jin, far higher than the previously heatedly discussed low prices.

The so-called extremely low-priced durians are often the smaller sized or lower quality Thai Tomanee variety, but they do not represent the general durian prices on the market. A major durian distributor at Beijing's Xinfadi Market mentioned that the retail price of Thai Golden Pillow durians in fruit stores and supermarkets remains above 25 yuan, and any lower-priced durians might be due to over-ripeness or poor quality.

Even though durian prices have dropped compared to the past, the current market price of twenty to thirty yuan per jin is still not considered cheap. Data from fruit and vegetable wholesale markets in places like Guangzhou and Beijing show a significant price drop for mainstream varieties like the Thai Golden Pillow. However, fluctuations in durian prices have brought uncertainty to the market, leading to attention and discussion.

Particularly noteworthy is that with Hainan durians fruiting for the first time and the expected increase in production this year, some people began comparing the trends in the durian market to the past price changes of the high-priced fruit "Sunshine Rose". However, according to industry insiders, the production scale of domestic durians is far smaller than that of imported durians, so their price competitiveness is limited, and they are unlikely to have a significant impact on the overall durian market.

An industry professional stated that even if domestic durian production increases, its scale will still be far less than that of imported durians for the foreseeable future, insufficient to have a substantial impact on the market.

In the world of tropical fruits, durian cultivation on Hainan Island has shown significant growth. The company Youqi has invested in about 16,000 mu of land for durian cultivation in Hainan, which accounts for nearly half of the total durian planting area on the island. From the 1950s to the 1980s, due to its unique conditions for tropical fruit and vegetable cultivation, Hainan began to experiment with introducing durians in places like Baoting and Lingshui. However, due to low survival rates, the results were not ideal.

Entering the late 1990s and early 21st century, people started to introduce durian varieties from Thailand, Vietnam, and other places, and the number of plantings gradually increased. Since 2018, durian planting in Hainan has entered a phase of large-scale production. According to data from the Sanya Agriculture and Rural Affairs Bureau, Sanya introduced new durian varieties five years ago. After long-term cultivation and acclimatization, in 2023, a durian plantation of 1400 mu produced 3500 jin/mu, with each mu yielding over 100,000 yuan.

At present, Hainan has approximately 40,000 mu of durian cultivation area, mainly concentrated in regions south of the 18th parallel north such as Lingshui, Wanning, Baoting, and Sanya. The varieties planted include Musang King, Golden Pillow, and Black Thorn. The Hainan Academy of Agricultural Sciences predicts that this year's national durian production will exceed 250 tons, meaning that the domestic market will welcome more domestically produced durians.

Despite the increasing number of domestically produced durians, the yield is still limited. Durian expert Wang Xinyu points out that there are not many areas in the country that are truly suitable for growing durian, which requires consideration of various factors such as climate, temperature, and humidity. Only Hainan and Mengla County in Xishuangbanna are the most suitable. He has calculated that even if all suitable areas in Hainan were fully planted with durian, and each mu produced 100 fruits in the eighth year of high yield, the annual output would still be less than 1% of last year's import volume of 1.42 million tons.

Liu Wenpo shares the same view, believing that domestically produced durians still hold an insignificant position in the entire durian market with limited impact. Wang Xinyu also clearly stated that domestically produced durians will not completely replace imported varieties like the Sunshine Rose. Limited by the scale of the cultivable area, domestically produced durians cannot affect the price of imported durians through scale effects.

Wang Xinyu indicates that the main competitiveness of domestically produced durians lies in quality, not in price. As they can mature naturally, the quality of domestically produced durians is generally better and aimed at the high-end consumer market. Thai durians often use ripening technology, and although Musang King from Malaysia is fully ripe, they are all preserved by freezing, so if you want to taste naturally matured fresh fruit from the tree, Hainan is the first choice in China.

According to data, tree-ripened durians have a clear advantage over ripened durians in terms of taste and quality, with an average sugar content difference of 8 to 13 degrees. Locally in Hainan, the Golden Pillow variety sells for as much as 60 yuan per half kilogram, and the Musang King variety even reaches 100 yuan per half kilogram, which are prices far higher than the corresponding imported varieties.

However, despite their superior quality, domestically produced durians still face challenges in sales channels. Wang Xinyu, who has contacted many durian farmers, found that many are puzzled about how to market their durians to the market. A grower in Ling Shui expects to harvest more than 3,000 durians this year but is unclear on how to sell them.

Domestically cultivated durians strive to achieve complete tree ripeness, that is, "fruit ripe and stem fall". This results in difficulty for the durians in the orchard to mature at the same time and be harvested on a large scale. Since the entire ripening period can last up to one or two months, the harvest of durians is very scattered, "today there might be three to five falling, and tomorrow might be seven or eight," Wang Xinyu explains. "If we adopt the foreign method of harvesting durians before they are ripe and using ripening agents, then the natural advantage of our domestic durians will no longer exist. That would be a waste of Hainan's geographical advantage." Clearly, tree-ripened durians taste better and fetch a higher market price, although their costs are also higher, as compared to 70-80% ripe durians, they require more water, nutrients, and labor. To efficiently use this advantage, Wang Xinyu plans to sell Hainan's tree-ripened durians through an online presale model, ensuring that the durians can be delivered directly to consumers as soon as they ripen.

There are many factors affecting the price of durians, among which Thailand is the main durian supplier to the Chinese market. According to data from China Customs, in 2023 China imported more than 1.42 million tons of fresh durians, a 72.87% increase over the same period last year, valued at approximately 6.7 billion US dollars, a 65.56% increase in value, with Thai durian imports accounting for as high as 65.15%.

It is noteworthy that the production of durian in Eastern Thailand has been reduced this year due to extreme weather, significantly affecting market prices. According to the Thai Public Broadcasting Service, the durian season in Eastern Thailand usually extends from March to June. However, temperatures in Chanthaburi province soared to 40 degrees Celsius for several weeks in a row, causing a drought that reduced durian yields. A report by Thai international economic expert Aat Pisanwanich warned that if no measures are taken against the drought, the durian output in Thailand could sharply decline by 53% over the next five years, to about 640,000 tons. He indicated that this year's drought alone has led to a 42% decline in durian production, about 540,000 tons.

Unlike the perception of domestic consumers, the actual purchase price of durians in Thailand is higher than last year. For example, recalling from Benlai Shenghuo, a fruit purchaser, despite last year's lowest price of 125 baht/kg (about 12.5 yuan/kg), this year's prices have maintained at a minimum of 135-140 baht/kg (13.5 yuan-14 yuan/kg). Local growers point out that the high temperatures cause durians to mature faster, yet it prevents them from growing to their largest and most valuable size, resulting in a large quantity of durians that are not up to standard.

According to information provided by Benlai Shenghuo, the decrease in durian prices on the domestic sales end is not only due to the short-term influx of distribution causing supply to exceed demand but also related to the quality degradation caused by drought. First, the hot and dry climate causes durians to mature early, preventing them from reaching maximum size; second, self-irrigation by farmers during water shortages may lead to over-irrigation, thereby reducing durian quality; third, to prevent overripening, durians are harvested early, which may result in some durians not being fully mature.

It is worth noting that a high-quality durian usually has the following characteristics: a round appearance, more than four segments, and a strong, rich aroma. However, due to the presence of low-quality durians on the market, wholesalers have to sell at a loss, despite the steady price of high-quality durians. However, the amount of excellent durians on the market is scarce. The prevalence of low-quality durians leads to a downward trend in overall durian prices.

In the current production and sales model, the retail and wholesale segments have not yet been significantly impacted. This is because, at the sales end, prices are often determined by the quantity of goods received, and when a large quantity arrives at once, market prices may reverse.

The fluctuation of durian prices is greatly affected by how the previous stock is dealt with in the market and the discount sales of poor-quality durians. Once new stock arrives, and the quantity of good-quality durians increases, the prices naturally stabilize back to normal.

At the same time, in the last two years, there has been an increase in businesses engaged in the durian trade, some of whom are newcomers who do not implement strict controls over product quality and distribution, indirectly leading to the entry of poor-quality durians into the market and adversely affecting the prices.

The formation of durian prices is influenced by various factors: from supply at the place of origin to domestic demand, then to the adjustments made by various wholesale levels during distribution, and ultimately governed by the actual supply and demand conditions in the domestic market.

Moreover, Li Wenjuan, a researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, points out that intense competition exists between the main exporting countries of durian. Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia are keen to export their durians to China, and the competition between these nations also affects the price fluctuations of durians.